NEW: Saturday 21 March update of our coronavirus mortality trajectories tracker
• Today we add annotations showing when each country locked down
• UK & US already have more deaths than when China, Spain, France & others locked down
Live version here: ft.com/content/a26fbf…
Here are the latest case trajectories for major countries:
• US case-curve has overtaken China’s
• Italy-scale outbreaks remain inevitable for most countries. Lockdowns and test-and-trace are essential, everywhere.
• Read more about test-and-trace: ft.com/content/e015e0…
And here’s the newest chart showing case trajectories in another 31 countries with more recent outbreaks. Some of the curves are alarming, in particular Turkey, though as ever cases are less reliable than death counts.
Live versions of all charts here: ft.com/content/a26fbf…
Here's my explainer on why we're using log scales: twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/s…
And why we're showing absolute numbers rather than population-adjusted rates: twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/s…
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Feedback is invaluable, and we incorporated several of your suggestions today.
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Stay safe, and keep up the social distancing.
Now some supplementary analysis, thanks to suggestions from @imartincorena, @hancocktom, @mrsmmartin, @neilcharles_uk.
UK is in real trouble here.
On current trends, UK could hit Italy’s death count in ~9 days. Italy locked down 10 days ago. UK is already behind that schedule.
And it’s probably worse than that.
Italy locked down in stages. It closed schools 17 days ago. It locked down its worst-affected region 13 days ago.
So: UK is already on a steeper mortality curve than Italy, and has apparently learned no lessons so is locking down more slowly.
Other countries have been where UK, US and co are.
China instituted stringent lockdowns, many of which remain in place. Its case count has stopped rising.
Korea: enormous test, trace & quarantine strategy, which brought the spread under control.
UK? "keep calm and carry on"
We can also see it was ~10 days after China’s lockdown that its mortality curve slowed.
Countries are looking at daily deaths in the dozens and thinking "It’s not that bad".
Next week it’ll be 100s, and by the time lockdowns flatten the curves, daily death tolls could be 1,000+
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