A lot of my colleagues in the @LSHTM modelling centre (@cmmid_lshtm) have been working extremely hard to help expand the COVID-19 evidence base over the past two months. I'd like to take a moment to highlight some of their work... 1/
Joel Hellewell, @rozeggo et al looked at feasibility of controlling COVID through continued contact tracing, estimating that if R0=2.5, then to control the majority of outbreaks, more than 70% of contacts would need to be traced thelancet.com/journals/langl… 2/
With our Cambridge collaborators, @petrakle has spearheaded fast-track analysis of social mixing data from the BBC Pandemic project, to help understand where transmission risk might be concentrated medrxiv.org/content/10.110… 3/
@yangliubeijing compiled and analysed data on early outbreaks among close contacts, which we used to assess risk during close-knit gatherings thelancet.com/journals/lance… 4/
@seabbs @sbfnk et al have developed real-time dashboards to analyse current transmission dynamics in different countries cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19… 5/
@BQuilty @StfnFlsch et al analysed airport screening, finding that screening at arrival would likely miss the vast majority of incoming infected travellers eurosurveillance.org/content/10.280… 6/
@samclifford et al also looked at how increased awareness among returning travellers could help delay outbreaks medrxiv.org/content/10.110… 7/
@timwrussell et al combined multiple datasets to estimate an overall fatality rate of 1.1% (95% CI: 0.3–2.4%) among symptomatic cases in China medrxiv.org/content/10.110… 8/
@TeebzR @KevinvZandvoort et al looked at the implications for outbreak dynamics if the first reported cases are deaths medrxiv.org/content/10.110… 9/
@kiesha_prem et al analysed how changes in social mixing reduced transmission in Wuhan, and the risk of a second peak if measures are lifted medrxiv.org/content/10.110… 10/
There's also some excellent work by others in the pipeline. Keep an eye out here: cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/ 11/
Finally, a reminder that UK government decision making during outbreaks is generally based on advice that considers a wide evidence base (including studies like the above) - not a single model/paper. More details here: twitter.com/AdamJKucharski… 12/12

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