NEW: There are 3 state warnings worth issuing today for COVID. Not panic, but time to consider actions.


Here’s why.

There is also good news.
Hospitalization rates are increasing in all 3 states & test positive %s are moving up.

In the case of Arizona, cases up 240% in last 2 weeks & hospitalizations are up 77% this past month, 31% this week alone. Their leading hospitals are ringing the alarm.…
Arkansas hospitalizations are up 180% over the last 28 days, 49% this week alone. Hospital capacity appears to be a concern at least in some parts of the state. Test positives are also increasing. New cases are doubling between 2-3 weeks.
Utah has only seen a 14% 28 day increase in hospitalizations but a 36% increase in the last 7 days.

Utah has more hospital capacity but I will call their hospitals today to double check. Utah is doubling every 3 weeks but that may get worse. % positives are going up.
These are signs of community spread. (H/T to Mark Van Sumeran for pointing out some of the data)

What does it mean?
It means we want to contain the spread & slow the infection rate as much as possible.

Key questions:
-Geographic county concentration: no need to make adjustments in Tucson if no spread there. But must do surveillance everywhere. Can you isolate it.
-Given the 8+ day lag time to hospitalizations, new capacity should be in the works already in Arizona and Arkansas. Is it?
-Masks should absolutely be warm to reduce transmission.
-The goal is to appear to have overreacted in retrospect.
The good news is that we are managing by exception as we #OpenSafely & in much of the country transmission is lower. Death rates are lower.

But this could change. And part of the bargain is watching closely & adjusting activities when this happens.
If you’re in those states, follow the advice of your state and local health commissioners.

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