NEW: There are 3 state warnings worth issuing today for COVID. Not panic, but time to consider actions.

Arizona
Arkansas
Utah

Here’s why.

There is also good news.
Hospitalization rates are increasing in all 3 states & test positive %s are moving up.

In the case of Arizona, cases up 240% in last 2 weeks & hospitalizations are up 77% this past month, 31% this week alone. Their leading hospitals are ringing the alarm. twitter.com/aslavitt/statu…
Arkansas hospitalizations are up 180% over the last 28 days, 49% this week alone. Hospital capacity appears to be a concern at least in some parts of the state. Test positives are also increasing. New cases are doubling between 2-3 weeks.
Utah has only seen a 14% 28 day increase in hospitalizations but a 36% increase in the last 7 days.

Utah has more hospital capacity but I will call their hospitals today to double check. Utah is doubling every 3 weeks but that may get worse. % positives are going up.
These are signs of community spread. (H/T to Mark Van Sumeran for pointing out some of the data)

What does it mean?
It means we want to contain the spread & slow the infection rate as much as possible.

Key questions:
-Geographic county concentration: no need to make adjustments in Tucson if no spread there. But must do surveillance everywhere. Can you isolate it.
-Given the 8+ day lag time to hospitalizations, new capacity should be in the works already in Arizona and Arkansas. Is it?
-Masks should absolutely be warm to reduce transmission.
-The goal is to appear to have overreacted in retrospect.
The good news is that we are managing by exception as we #OpenSafely & in much of the country transmission is lower. Death rates are lower.

But this could change. And part of the bargain is watching closely & adjusting activities when this happens.
If you’re in those states, follow the advice of your state and local health commissioners.

Create an account for weekly updates and features such as bookmarks & reading history.