COVID Update June 19: Cases are rising & states are facing an onslaught as hospitalizations begin to grow.

The month ahead is likely to be filled with terrible loss. It’s time to address that and we might if only the president would care. 1/
People are getting sicker throughout the South & the West & our national leaders won’t even acknowledge it, let alone act. The numbers here paint a clear picture. 2/…
During June, the death toll, while high, has been mercifully flat. It’s not clear why but there are a few possibilities... 3/…
After looking at some data today, there is a pattern ahead.

From March through May, 9 of the 10 states with the most cases/capita in a month had the highest deaths/capita the next month.

We need to try to change that now. 4/
This one month lag is something we were aware of but this confirms what to expect in which states & is how we should target our efforts. 5/
Things have been shifting as the virus moves through the country.

8 of the states with the most cases this month were not even in the top 10 in May.

If patterns hold, this means states with new cases in June will have the most deaths in July. 6/
Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina & Utah all have spikes in cases right now.

But all have have relatively level deaths/capita from the month before. 7/
Our national priority now should be to end this trend.

Instead of our national leaders pretending, ignoring & avoiding, they should be spending every second preventing loss of life. 8/
Why isn’t the CDC publishing clinical data from early states?
Moving hospital staff to these states?
Setting up teleconsullts w NY docs? Moving therapeutics in?
Sending in 10s of thousands of contact tracers?
Massively testing underserved communities? 9/
Why is there still no regular reporting of nursing home safety?
Why is there not mandatory testing & treatments in prisons?
Why aren’t masks being freely distributed?
Enforced workplace safety?
Dialing back bar openings when hospitalizations grow? 10/
The “big idea” is simply & best articulated by @DrLeanaWen an approach of “harm reduction” to dramatically reduce loss. 11/…
It’s a weird brand of politics.

Pretending nothing is happening while people die is the strangest re-election strategy I’ve ever seen. 12/
A real leader would be talking about this and reporting about this every day. 13/
It is too easy for the world to see. And it can’t be said that it had to be this way. 14/…
There are many things that are being done state by state. And @USofCare is getting it spread around in this manual.

But it is no substitute. 15/…
Trump’s failure to lead continues to repeat itself as fast the virus spreads. Tomorrow he will be in Tulsa to keep up the ruse that nothing is happening. /end

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