A short update on #COVID19 in Australia. The short take today is the stage 4 lockdown continues at Melbourne as the number of daily cases declines but not as much as expected and according to modeling from Melbourne Uni -> Logical & good decision. A fair to go
An important reason despite the decline in the number of cases in VIC => virus is still circulating in the community (positive #SARSCoV2 on sewage, unknown cases....) + cluster. Reopening would in short time result in third wave + 3rd lockdown. Good decision to extend lockdown.
Despite a spike at 80,000 tests in VIC 03 Sept, the number of daily tests in VIC is relatively modest ~ 20K/day. Important to increase the testing capability + contact tracing to keep numbers down, which is in the agenda of the VIC government
On a positive side, the number of ICU admission + hospitalization is strongly declining, which is a great and important result from the lockdown. Sadly it has a high cost with high fatality rate in aged care facilities unfortunately
Modeling ( I am not an expert on this, can't comment the science) shows that the target in VIC should be 5 cases per day (70/fortnight) avoids another lockdown by Christmas (3% chance). This target is reachable by end September/October. VIC can do it ! dhhs.vic.gov.au/emerging-lockd…
In conclusion. Frustrating for Melbourne but this is a good decision to extend the lockdown and ensure the number of daily cases is low to avoid another stage 4 lockdown by Christmas. I am optimistic on the situation in VIC
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