Adam Kucharski

@AdamJKucharski

What are the benefits/limitations of mass testing certain populations for SARS-CoV-2 regardless of symptoms? A thread... 1/

Adam Kucharski

@AdamJKucharski

I’m seeing some fatalism creep in around whether contact tracing system/app will work. But remember, most the reduction in transmission is likely to come from the first step - when you promptly self-isolate and get tested as soon you have symptoms (and household isolate too)...1/

Adam Kucharski

@AdamJKucharski

Is the reproduction number currently 0.7, or 0.85, or 0.641? Was it bigger yesterday than today? A thread on real-time estimation and false precision... 1/

Adam Kucharski

@AdamJKucharski

Lots of people are now getting interested in infectious disease epidemiology (which is great), but I wanted to do a quick thread on some common mistakes/misunderstandings to watch out for if you're new to these sorts of datasets/questions... 1/

Adam Kucharski

@AdamJKucharski

A lot of my colleagues in the @LSHTM modelling centre (@cmmid_lshtm) have been working extremely hard to help expand the COVID-19 evidence base over the past two months. I'd like to take a moment to highlight some of their work... 1/

Adam Kucharski

@AdamJKucharski

A couple of key takeaways from our analysis of early COVID-19 dynamics in Wuhan:

1. We estimated that the control measures introduced - unprecedented interventions that will have had a huge social and psychological toll – reduced transmission by around 55% in space of 2 weeks 1/